ECB Raises 2026‑27 Inflation and GDP Growth Forecasts Amid Rising Energy Prices

The European Central Bank’s fourth‑quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) shows headline inflation expectations climbing to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, up 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, while core inflation remains at 2.0%. Real GDP growth expectations are revised up to 1.0% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027 and 2028, reflecting recent data. Unemployment expectations rise slightly to 6.4% in 2026 before easing to 6.1% in the long term. The survey, based on 52 responses collected 2–7 October 2026, attributes the upward shifts mainly to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with the Middle East conflict expected to add further pressure mainly in 2027.