Fed Holds Rates, Bitcoin Nears $81,500 as December Hike Likely

On Oct. 28 the Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10‑2 vote, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting and calling for an immediate 25‑basis‑point increase. Market analysts now see an 83%–88% chance of a rate hike in December. The decision came as Bitcoin slipped to $80,500 before rebounding above $81,000, close to the $81,500 aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reported by Glassnode. Chair Kevin Warsh noted tighter credit conditions and the impact of higher rates on technology investment, including AI, but said the Fed would tolerate further market strain before changing course. The 10‑year Treasury yield hovered near 5.04% and the two‑year around 4.78% on the decision day. The Fed’s stance and the upcoming PCE data, released the day after the meeting, will shape expectations for the December policy move.