Bitcoin options show smaller election premium ahead of 2026 midterms compared to 2024 presidential vote

According to Block Scholes, Bitcoin options priced a significantly lower election premium ahead of the November 3, 2026 US congressional midterms than before the 2024 presidential election. The report compares forward implied volatility across the seven-to-14-day election window, finding premiums of 2.8 and 0.1 volatility points over later intervals, versus 14.4 and 10.8 points in 2024. The finding suggests investor expectations have shifted away from treating election day as a major market catalyst.