Polymarket mispriced Lula's victory odds before Brazil's election, experts say

Polymarket priced Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's chance of winning Brazil's presidential election at about 20% before election day, while the former president ultimately won a fourth term. Experts attribute the mispricing to Brazil's ban on prediction markets and the influx of retail traders, which diluted the expertise of professional predictors. A Polymarket whale noted that professional predictors knew the market was mispriced, while retail traders continued to bet on Bolsonaro even as Lula's victory became apparent.