Copper tests April support as mine supply drops for first time since 2017

Copper prices test their April support trendline amid a 1.1% drop in global mine supply in the first half of 2026, the first annual decline since 2017. Outages at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in Congo erased about 600,000 tonnes of expected 2026 output, equal to roughly 2.5% of global supply. While refined metal remains abundant with a 131,000-tonne surplus, ore pricing shows strain, with Antofagasta selling Centinela ore at minus $310 per tonne. AI data centers are major copper consumers, with a 1-gigawatt campus needing up to 50,000 tonnes, though cost remains a minor issue at under 0.5% of budget. S&P Global projects a widening long-term gap, estimating 2040 demand at 42 million tonnes leaving supply roughly 10 million tonnes short.