Kalshi Senate markets show price discrepancy between control and seat-count odds on Oct. 28

On Oct. 28, Kalshi's Senate control market had a 64.5% midpoint probability for Democratic control, while normalized estimates from seat-count markets put the chance of 51 or more Democratic seats at about 62.1%. A $3.02 four-contract hedge, combining a YES on Democratic control with NOs on exactly 51, exactly 52, and above 52 seats, would pay $3 if outcomes aligned, leaving a two-cent loss before fees. The discrepancy arises from different settlement provisions and timing rules for control versus seat composition.