BIS study uses LLMs to measure corporate responses to geoeconomic pressure
A new BIS working paper uses large language models to analyze earnings calls, revealing how firms respond to geoeconomic pressure. Export controls prompt targeted firms, especially Chinese semiconductor companies, to increase domestic R&D for local substitutes. Western sanctions on Russia cause revenue losses for coalition firms but benefit third-country firms like China and India through discounted energy and rerouted trade. Tariffs mostly hurt US firms reliant on imported inputs, compressing margins.
The paper provides a systematic, LLM-driven analysis of corporate responses to three major forms of geoeconomic pressure—export controls, sanctions, and tariffs—offering rare empirical evidence on supply chain shifts and domestic investment trends that are directly relevant for readers tracking AI, crypto, and global market dynamics.
Source: BIS 研究论文 · bis.org