Bitcoin simulations show why a return to $126,000 would not last

Historical return simulations using Coin Metrics data show that 50.4% of Bitcoin price paths cross above $126,198 at least once within a year, but only 34.8% finish above it. The analysis reveals that crossing a price barrier is only the first event; staying above it requires a third test covering what follows the initial reclaim. In 42.1% of paths, Bitcoin crossed and subsequently closed below the barrier at least once, with the median first crossing taking 189 days and a median maximum drawdown of 18.9% before crossing. Overall, 65.2% of paths ended below the record, including those that never reached it.