ECB Governing Council Meeting Notes Detail Market Influences from Middle East Conflict and AI

The European Central Bank Governing Council met in Frankfurt am Main on July 22-23, 2026. Financial markets were driven by the evolving Middle East conflict and AI developments. Brent crude oil prices briefly fell to pre-war levels following a preliminary peace agreement but rebounded due to rising crack spreads, tight inventories, and constrained refining capacity from Middle East and Russian facility damage. Longer-dated oil futures remain above pre-war levels, while natural gas prices stay near post-war peaks. Inflation compensation quickly rose after oil rebounds, surpassing levels from the June 10-11, 2026 meeting.