Bitcoin rebounds to $83,500 as traders assess support using proximity-weighted cost basis

Bitcoin rebounded to around $83,500 on Oct. 21, up 2.8% over 24 hours. Glassnode’s proximity-weighted cost-basis framework assesses whether nearby supply is positioned to support the price, dividing cost bases into percentile groups and weighting them by distance from spot price. The model shows that 68.2% of Bitcoin supply was in profit as of Oct. 19, but spot buying remained weak, indicating broad profitability can coexist with weak demand. The framework distinguishes between two visits to a similar price: if more nearby weighted supply sits below spot on a second visit, the distribution is more supportive; if more sits above, the price may face greater resistance. The analysis also references the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) as complementary metrics for evaluating selling risk and holder profitability.