DWF Labs finds Bitcoin ETF buyers are trend followers, not price setters

DWF Labs analyzed 694 trading days since US spot Bitcoin ETF launches in January 2024 and found that ETF flows do not reliably predict Bitcoin's price movements; investors tended to chase rallies and pull money out during price drops of at least 15%, with net inflows occurring in all nine rallies of that size. The analysis showed a weak correlation (0.03) between daily ETF flows and subsequent five-day price changes, compared to a moderate correlation (0.54) with preceding five-day changes. Total net withdrawals reached $6.9 billion between October 2025 and February 2026, and $8.2 billion during the May–June decline, though the source could not distinguish between institutional and retail sellers.