Bitcoin’s Volatility Declines to 2023 Levels, Analysts See It as a Bullish Signal

James Check, founder of Checkonchain and former Glassnode analyst, argues that Bitcoin’s recent drop in price swings—its one‑month realized volatility fell to 25.2%, a level last seen in summer 2023—signals a transition from speculative hype to a more stable, mature asset. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has traded calmly on only about 5 % of days since 2015, and the yearly volatility band has narrowed from roughly 55–78 % in mid‑2022 to about 30–52 %. Check links the higher price floor in the latest drawdown (around $60,000 versus a $40,000 low in 2022) to a reduced existential risk perception. JPMorgan’s 2027 Long‑Term Capital Market Assumptions now include Bitcoin, projecting a 10 % annual return, but the bank still excludes it from model portfolios due to high historical volatility (≈55 %) and unstable correlations. Check believes a modest 2 % allocation in such portfolios could attract significant capital, while the calm market also carries risks that need monitoring.