Bitwise Projects Bitcoin Could Hit $1.6 Million by 2036, Relying on a 25% Share of a $110 Trillion Store‑of‑Value Market

Crypto asset manager Bitwise released an updated outlook on Oct. 28 that projects Bitcoin’s price at $1,599,766 in 2036, based on a 34.3% annual return from its September reference price of $83,557. The forecast hinges on the assumption that the combined gold‑and‑Bitcoin store‑of‑value market will grow to $109.8 trillion, with Bitcoin capturing 25% of that market. Bitwise’s model assigns roughly $27.45 trillion of that value to Bitcoin alone, accounting for about 82% of the total $33.6 trillion valuation implied by the price target. In contrast, JPMorgan’s newer Bitcoin scenarios use a 10% compound return, yielding a 2036 price of about $216,725. Bitwise’s higher return assumption is driven by expectations of institutional Bitcoin allocations of 1%–5% and a 27.8% volatility midpoint. JPMorgan questions whether currency debasement will spur crypto adoption, citing Bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlations as barriers to portfolio inclusion. The Bitwise forecast also includes a bear case of $130,686 and a bull case of $3.67 million, while its previous outlook projected $1.3 million by 2035.