BIS Study Reveals Offshore Forward Market Drives Emerging‑Market Currency Moves
Current overview (not historical)
BIS researchers, using LCH ForexClear trade‑flow data, show that a $1 billion shift in offshore non‑delivery forward (NDF) demand moves the domestic spot exchange rate of an emerging‑market currency by roughly 10 basis points and the offshore forward rate by about 18 basis points. The study, covering ten currencies from 2014‑2025, is the first empirical analysis of NDF price formation based on signed trade flows. It also finds that regulatory policy changes significantly affect the spread between the offshore and domestic markets, underscoring the importance of policy context in interpreting NDF‑driven currency movements. The paper highlights how offshore forward markets can transmit monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks to emerging‑market currencies, and suggests that policy shifts can widen or narrow the pricing gap between offshore and domestic rates.
Written with AI from the reporting · updated 10/16/2026
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- 1Unclassified fact stationOct 16, 00:00recorded Oct 16, 20:00single sourcerevised
BIS研究论文发布：研究离岸非交割远期市场对新兴市场汇率的传导
Read original source ↗ BIS · Research PapersReplay this moment in the explorerEvidence & revisions · 1 source records
- Subject：
- Gerardo Ferrara
- Action：
- 发布研究论文
- Object：
- 分析离岸非交割远期市场价格形成
- Occurred (fact side)：
- Oct 16, 00:00
- Published (valid side)：
- Oct 16, 08:00
- First seen (known side)：
- Oct 16, 20:00
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- BIS · Research PapersFirst-party sourceRelated fact: single sourceSource report revisedOffshore NDF trading transmits exchange rate pressure to emerging market spot rates, study finds
Report first recorded Oct 16, 20:00
A $1 billion increase in offshore dollar demand moves the onshore exchange rate by about 10 basis points within minutes and the offshore forward rate by about 18 basis points. The study, using transaction-level data from LCH ForexClear for 10 emerging market currencies from 2014 to 2025, finds that offshore trading widens the gap between offshore and onshore prices. Regulatory changes affecting bank access to offshore markets, including episodes in China, Malaysia and India, determine how much of this pressure reaches the domestic market.
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