ECB’s Frank Elderson Discusses Climate Risk Uncertainty
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Frank Elderson, a senior ECB official, addressed the ECB‑Bank of England Climate Risk Forum, outlining a framework that separates "known‑knowns" from "known‑unknowns" in climate‑related financial risks. He noted that the direct economic losses and transmission channels of climate events can now be quantified, but highlighted the existence of "unknown‑unknowns"—future event probabilities and outcomes that remain difficult to measure. Elderson emphasized that risk management must focus on the measurable aspects while acknowledging the non‑linear nature of climate shocks. He called for continued research and policy tools that can adapt to these uncertainties, ensuring that financial resilience is maintained even when the full scope of future climate impacts is not yet understood.
Written with AI from the reporting · updated 10/14/2026
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- 1Unclassified fact stationOct 14, 00:00recorded Oct 14, 22:23single sourcerevised
ECB官员Frank Elderson在会议上探讨气候风险不确定性
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- Subject：
- Frank Elderson
- Action：
- 在ECB-Bank of England Conference上发表主题演讲
- Object：
- 探讨气候与自然风险中的已知已知、已知未知与未知未知
- Occurred (fact side)：
- Oct 14, 00:00
- Published (valid side)：
- Oct 14, 08:00
- First seen (known side)：
- Oct 14, 22:23
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- European Central Bank NewsFirst-party sourceRelated fact: single sourceSource report revisedECB Member Frank Elderson addresses resilience against non-linear risks at ECB-Bank of England Conference
Report first recorded Oct 14, 22:23
Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, spoke at the ECB-Bank of England Conference on supervising climate risk in a non-linear world in Frankfurt am Main on 14 October 2026. He noted that modern risk management, based on stable relationships and historical data, is challenged by complex macro trends like geopolitical fragmentation, demographic change, AI, quantum computing, and climate and nature (C&N) crises. These trends exhibit non-linear behavior, where small changes can trigger disproportionately large effects, moving tail risks closer to the baseline. Elderson distinguished between measurable risk and radical uncertainty, which involves future events whose probabilities and outcomes cannot be measured with confidence, proposing a framework of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknowns we don't know we don't know.
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