Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark moves prediction for self-improving AI forward to 2027
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Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark has moved his prediction for the emergence of recursively self-improving AI forward to 2027, revising his earlier estimate of 2028. Clark based this revision on specific numerical assessments. Separately, P-Zero Research has released TasteVal, a benchmark test designed to quantify model research taste, though its scope is currently limited to capabilities of proposing research questions and designing experiments.
Written with AI from the reporting · updated 10/25/2026
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- 1Unclassified fact stationOct 25, 00:00recorded Oct 25, 17:53single sourcerevised
Jack Clark 将自改进 AI 预测提前至 2027 年
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- Subject：
- Jack Clark
- Action：
- 预测调整
- Object：
- 自改进 AI 时间线
- Occurred (fact side)：
- Oct 25, 00:00
- Published (valid side)：
- Oct 25, 17:37
- First seen (known side)：
- Oct 25, 17:53
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- The DecoderRelated fact: single sourceSource report revisedAnthropic co-founder Jack Clark moves prediction for self-improving AI forward to 2027
Report first recorded Oct 25, 17:53
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark has moved his prediction for recursive self-improving AI forward to 2027, citing new benchmark data. The TasteVal benchmark, developed by P-Zero Research, measures AI models' research taste across tasks including training data selection and defending against adversarial prompts, though it only tests two of the three defined abilities. The top model, Anthropic's Opus 5.5, achieved a compute multiplier of 2.3, reaching expert-level scores with less than half the compute required by human experts. The study found that across several model generations, the compute multiplier has roughly doubled every three months since December 2025.
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